Playing Global Financial Chicken

Every day the media from magazines, newspapers, radio to TV present two groups of pundits who are playing global financial chicken. One group argues economic recovery is underway and financial markets are responding early and strongly and most importantly will continue to do so. Jim Cramer even goes so far to decry that we are in a “Superboom.” The other group argues there will be a correction most likely  a large one meaning over 10% decline on the major averages.

Financial markets are going up, and yes, only up. Here’s why:  If the economy recovers companies will make money and they have gotten lean over recent years so they will have huge earnings driving equity markets way up. If economies do not recover, governments across the planet have committed themselves to spending and creating liquidity. Thus, regardless of economic conditions financial markets will ONLY GO UP.

The result:   3-4 years from now we will most likely have to pay the price of all today’s profligate spending and liquidity creating. Like a group of drunken sailors we will wake up to huge hangovers and be terribly sick and unfortunately for a much longer period than most sailors take to recover.

Posted in Global Economics | No Comments »

Catching the Next Big Wave

Social Media

A close friend of mine called me and said, “the next big thing will be social media.” ‘Having joined and used sites like Facebook, Linkedin and Twitter for some time I agreed. David Letterman made the comment a couple of weeks ago that Twitter is just another time waster. A common refrain from people of our generation, that is Dave and I. Only a few years back our age cohort thought the Internet was a fad, and, and well you get the point.

Just a year or two back John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems, forecast that collaboration would be the next big thing.  This very week Jim Cramer the reborn stock broker cum broadcaster announced his view that the next big thing would be the mobile Internet. Below are a few comments for now. Please send me your views. Why did I title this the next big wave instead of big thing. Google has been changing the game, the advertising game, the email game, and now is changing the communication/collaboration game with it’s latest Google Wave. To see your future take a look at the introduction video here.

http://wave.google.com/

Note:  For a brilliant, clear, simple English overview and explanation of social media go here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpIOClX1jPE
For how Ford is making money using social media click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9j4yzfC6ijY and Ford’s CEO, Alan Mulally, on Twitter:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaaKNcovfdQ&feature=related

Collaboration

Technology has developed along several fronts to enable teams to collaborate – to work together – apart! John Chamber put Cisco’s money in front of his forecast and purchased WebEX. IBM followed suit with their acquisition of Web Dialog and AT&T’s acquisition of Interwise, well, again you have the idea. Remembering back a couple of decades when IBM entered Apple’s world and launched the new PC world. These giants all leaping on the collaboration platform suggests the collaboration train is shouting, “All aboard.” You should pay close attention. Why?  China is now the world’s largest English speaking country. See my Era of Collaboration blog and see how global this trend has become.

Note:  If you are interested in seeing how live collaboration editing really works behind the scene take a look here at how Google does it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ykZYKCK7AM&feature=channel You will learn how Google has overcome watching and waiting while someone types an Instant Message, IM.

Mobile Internet

Oprah a little over a year ago spurred on the Blackberry when she gushed like a school girl over her Blackberry telling millions they just had to have one. Apple’s recent price reduction launching a $99 iPhone and Palm’s new Pre are all driving forces among many others making Nokia’s mobile life campaign a few years back today’s reality.

Note:  For Intel’s view of the mobile Internet click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFxIqOAeIv8
For Clearwire/Cisco’s view click here:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx1TAcm72hQ

Since drafting this blog the US State Department asked Twitter to help them with communications from Iran. The social media world has now intersected with the real world and the political world in a profound and unintended way.  Yes, I truly believe my friend, Abraham is on to something. Social media is the next big thing.

Posted in Global Technologies | 1 Comment »

Crash portends Doom to Bloom

Watching groups of people standing on the wings of the “Miracle on the Hudson” airplane crashed and floating on the Hudson River surrounded by an armada of air and water craft all collaborating to ensure everyone survives it occurs to me that this could well portend our future.

The pilot, Chelsey “Sully” Sullenberge, achieved the first successful water crash in aviation history. How? Why? What happened? It will be weeks before all this becomes clear yet we can already conclude something quite different has occurred. Most people on a plane with water rushing in would panic and most likely trample or hurt themselves or others scrambling to deplane. Yet these 155 people actually helped each other. One woman even did her high school cheerleader bit to calm those around her.

I was not surprised to learn how extraordinary an individual the pilot is as a person, as a leader. I think he built a team and his team responded to this challenge. The coming weeks will bring more insight and information to either support my views or not. He is a man known to be calm, intelligent and caring. He even donated his time to train dogs for the blind.

The US economy has crashed much like the airplane and is floating on a river of Federal money. Nearly two TRILLION at last count. The first stimulus package early last year of US$168 billion, AIG US $123 billion, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac US $200 billion, the TARP funds US $700 billion including US $17 billion for the automotive industry and US $45 billion each for CitiGroup and Bank of America and the Obama stimulus plan is currently expected to be US $ 825 billion. Yes, two trillion dollars to shift doom to bloom. Bloom NOT boom because we need to first open up areas of our institutions, companies and economies before we can expect to grow them into a boom.

Today Obama became President. A community organizer who has learned how to get people to collaborate, an extraordinary leader who is also intelligent and a life-long writer, from law review editor to accomplished author three times over, a man like our pilot Sulley of amazing calm and caring. Obama grew up barely knowing his father yet shows no resentment, he faced all the challenges of all people of color yet he appears to harbors no bitterness.

Many today compare Obama to Lincoln and there is much to connect the two:  both coming from Illinois, both eloquent writers and orators, both focused on ensuring opportunities for everyone to work hard and succeed, both using government to build infrastructure, to give everyone an equal chance. Again we will need to wait and see how this comparison develops as Obama must prove himself in action over time to earn the label of being the modern day Lincoln.

My view is that Obama is a leader like our hero pilot, Sulley, a collaborative and innovative leader, again like Sulley who suggested many airline innovations, who will get us to stand on the wings of our fallen economy to stop clamoring over each other to survive but rather to help and support each other through the greatest financial crisis since the 1930s. We are being rescued by a river of money from our children’s future doled out throughout many government institutions many of which were specifically designed to deal with the very crisis we are facing. The analogy can be continued with the armada of countries who we will have to continue to count on to help us navigate through this crisis.

This armada will of course include the usual group of European and Asian friends we have had for many decades and most especially all those countries who continually purchase our debt instuments. Joining this group will be many, many more of the world’s 309 countries if you use the most expansive of definitions of the word, “country.” Why? — because we are all threatened by this global financial crisis.

Interesting that the remake of a 1954 movie, The Day the Earth Stood Still, is in the theatres. It suggests that the world will be taken away from us humans as we have no galactic right to treat it as badly as we have done. If we do not change the alien worlds around us will simply take out our species. Dramatic, yes, poignant AND again portends our future. All the world’s leaders not just those political but also all institutional and business leaders, ALL leaders are challenged today by the same relentless crisis and are leading their charges often floating on rivers of money doled out by others.

Where is the solution to all this? I believe we need to look at simple economics. People work and make money. They then spend money. If they can’t work or if they are afraid of not being able to work they stop spending money. Businesses spend money in anticipation of people spending money. When people stop spending businesses stop spending. This is the current inward feedback cycle causing economy after economy, institution after institution, individual after individual to crash, to go under and stay afloat again by money doled out from their governments, their investors or others.

Just a few decades ago employers cared deeply about their main resource — people. As we shifted from agriculture to industrial to service societies our companies depended more on information, on capital and their managements began to see people as an interchangeable and malleable resource. Each day headlines everywhere announce terminations many in the thousands of workers PER company. Wall Street has traditionally rewarded companies ridding themselves of their personnel by raising their stock prices.

Most people think of Henry Ford as an industrial genius for having created the assembly line to produce the Model T. Ford’s true genius really was in creating jobs that paid US $5 a day per worker. He enabled his workers to become his customers. Today’s managers have forgotten that their workers ARE their customers and if they are not working and even if they think they might NOT be working then they will no longer be customers. It’s just that simple. Companies create jobs which then creates customers.

The contract between company and worker has been broken. Companies need to rethink their behavior. This is especially true when the worker is not a farm hand or a factory worker but a knowledge worker or a service or experience provider. Companies need to re establish the contract with their workers and capture the collective intelligence and experience of their workers. Companies need to find ingenious ways to survive as some companies are doing like reducing hours across groups of people but everyone keeping their job, changing all kinds of policies and fostering innovation, again collaborating with their workers to innovate.

On his first day in office President Obama adjusted the salaries of all those making over US $100,000 in his administration. GM’s President reduced his salary to one dollar a year. Today 7 S&P companies announced thousands of people in their companies would be laid off — none announced their executives would adjust their salaries or otherwise contribute. Obama is leading by example.
Allan’s Take: Executives should follow his lead.

Innovation is the engine of economic growth. We Americans are known and rightfully so for our ingenuity and innovation. We are on technology curves in almost all industries ready to leap to new curves with completely new technologies. Innovation will spring up all across the US and the globe like Pegasus came down from the heavens and with every hoof innovation sprung. Allan’s Take: Innovation is what will shift doom to bloom.

We have reached the end of technology after technology. Chips for example use electrons for transferring information yet electrons today must be placed in single file in order to fit on the small sidewalks inside today’s chips. Tomorrow’s technology will be using photons for transferring information where there is no size as light is a wave. Photon chips are atready in labs being prototyped.

Is there precedent for my vision? Yes, while many reflect upon the 1930s depression era and compare it to today’s economic situation and argue if we are in or going to be in a depression. I take a completely different view. Allan’s Take: During the 1930’s there was a huge amount of innovation. Companies like IBM began the computer age, companies like RCA began the media age, and companies like GE spurred the industrial age and so on. During the depths of economic decline in the 1970s when prices dropped for two decades both Apple and Microsoft were born and launched us into the information age.

America will lead the world again in innovation and lead the world into the experience age. Companies that stage complete experiences for their customers will capture the most rewards. Companies like Disney, like McDonalds, like Wal-Mart. These companies structure their entire company around producing the best experience they can possibly provide for their customers. They provide much more than products and services. They provide memories, fun, and peace of mind.

Most Americans will be listening to President Obama  today. His inauguration speech will portend a new innovative and caring America in my view. Even 89% of those voting for McCain are expecting Obama will bring change, not small changes like different people, but real change in process, in the way business is conducted not only in Washington, D. C., not only across America, but across the globe – lifting all of us above our rivers of doled money into collaborating and innovating in a new world.

Posted in Global Economics | 2 Comments »

Why invest in the US now?

The world’s leading investors have spent billions on US firms in the last 60 days.

• Warren Buffet: General Electric & Goldman Sachs
• Prince Al Waleed bin Talal: Citigroup & Apple
• Bill Gates: Republic Services (solid waste management)
• Carl Icahn: Citigroup & Biogen
• Carlos Slim: Citigroup & Saks 5th Avenue
• Edward Lampert: AutoNation & AutoZone
• George Soros: Chesapeake Energy & Wal-Mart
• T. Boone Pickens: Chesapeake Energy & Valero Energy

These investors have each made billions in the past and are confident they will return more billions in the future. They see tremendous opportunities and are confident the US and world economies will turnaround in the coming years. Allan’s Take adds the following:

1. Global companies are investing in the US.

• This week the Belgian/Brazilian brewer INBEV bought Anheuser Busch for US $52 billion in cash at the premium price of US $70 per share.
• BCE Canada’s largest telecom company will likely close a huge US acquisition by year’s end.
• Fortune Magazine reports “Foreigners are Grabbing US Assets.”

2. Attitudes in the US are changing. All across the US teens, black,     white, Hispanic are having their dreadlocks cut. They are pulling up     their baggy pants. They are joining the Army. Seems change has     been discussed so much by so many and with Obama’s win SO REAL     that many are changing on a personal level. Going through drive-ins     manned by youngsters and oldsters you can feel and see the     change. Attitude change leads to productivity improvement.     Research shows that 34% of financial performance directly results     from how people are led and just the reality of our new leader     winning has already created a level of excitement I have not     experienced since the Kennedy Camelot in the 1960’s. This could     evaporate, of course, but I think not, it’s too fundamental, too basal,     too encompassing.

3. But US companies like General Motors are the walking dead you     say?

GM stock is trading at the $3 level – amazing – and sad. The US Congress gave the financial sector over US $ one trillion but seems unwilling to give the industrial sector US $25 billion –amazing – and sad. Reflect on the following:

• The largest car market in Europe is Russia and the biggest car company there is GM with sales growing at 44% per year.
• The world’s second largest car market is China and the biggest car company there is GM.
• The world’s fastest selling car? Yup, you guessed it – GM’s Chevy at 2.5 million cars/yr
• The world’s fastest selling truck? Ford’s F150 at one million trucks/yr

So why are these companies in trouble? Because of embedded costs like health care which is the single largest cost in the manufacturing of a car in the US and other policy issues. It’s not the US autoworker as Toyota has become America’s largest auto manufacturer using only US workers. BMW, Mercedes and other foreign car makers do very well with US workers.

There are many US companies doing extremely well: Abbott Labs, Amgen, Apple, Caterpillar, General Mills, HP, Hudson City Bank, IBM, McDonald’s, Rohm & Haas, Wal-Mart & Wynn Resorts just to name a few in the S&P 500 with an average rise this year of over 20%.

4. The next economic transformation will be from IT to ET – from Information Technology to Energy Technology (pardon the alien alliteration). There is a whole family of at least nine groups of technologies underway many of which will be leap frogged onto logarithmic growth in the coming months including: WT – wind energy technologies, GT natural gas technologies, ST – solar energy technologies, NT – both nuclear fission & fusion energy technologies, BT – many types of biofuels & biomass energy technologies, TT –geothermal energy technologies, OT – all six kinds of ocean energy technologies including tidal, undersea and wave, HT–hydro energy technologies and RT – reducing energy technologies to save energy. Yes, I know the dramatic drop in oil prices could dissipate the enthusiasm for ET, but this time, I think not. ET’s a trifecta: it will be cheaper, it will be cleaner and it will be ours triangulating economic, environmental and political spheres of concern.

   T. Boone Pickens has developed a plan largely focused on WT and GT. He forecasts five million new jobs will be created in wind –WT, 2 million each in gas—GT and solar– ST. Total 9 million jobs which will put ALL out of work Americans to work, not only those 4 million at the moment but all those forecast to be out of work from the deepening of today’s’ recession.

5. The world’s largest investor, now the US government, has invested US $7 trillion in the US. This is double the total inflation adjusted spending on the Louisiana & Alaska Purchases — $267 billion, the New Deal $500 billion, the Korean & Vietnam wars — $ 1.2 trillion and the race to the moon — $217 billion plus all other NASA expenditures over nearly 50 years –$850 billion. Even more startling the money is being borrowed at 2% and guaranteed to return at least 5% on a preferred ownership basis. The earnings on this investment will most likely be over US $10 trillion.

Add up the above: attitudes enhancing productivity, US enterprise success and the coming ET –Energy Technology transformation and you can understand why the world’s leading billionaire investors; the US government and many foreign companies are investing their billions in the US just this month in spite of the global financial crisis.

Posted in Global Economics | 1 Comment »

Grapes of Wrath – Again?

The Grapes of Wrath was a John Steinbeck novel made into a movie in 1940 starring Henry Fonda about really hard times. Drought in the State of Oklahoma forces a farming family into foreclosure and they go off to California with other families to find jobs and new lives. Instead they find more and more difficulties including the death of their child. The movie ends with a poignant scene where the mother suckles a starving old man. In another poignant film, The Starman, an alien being who visits our planet, says to a scientist at the end of this movie, “Do you want me to tell you what we find special about your species?” “Of course,” he says. “You are always at your best when times are at their worst.” I believe today’s challenges will bring out our best.

The world’s media is transfixed by tumultuous & shocking financial events. The world is having a daily conversation on how bad things are and wondering how bad can things possibly get. We have gone from worrying about our money & investments to actually worrying about putting food on the table for our families. What to do? Read on…

Allan’s Take: focus on the physical world not the paper world. Every day a rice farmer awakens in China and plants, a construction worker in Canada wires up some rebar and
a pearl farmer seeds his oysters off the Gulf Coast of Abu Dhabi. We are all still producing things and we will all find ways to help each other make it through this series of crises and bring out our best.

Inside the vortex of any change it is almost impossible to see things clearly as so many things are swirling around us. I offer a counter perspective for your reflection and action below:

Most of the recent financial problems precipitated from the collapse of the housing market in the US. The housing market is now improving:

• Mortgage applications are up 17% this week from last week.
• Sales of houses are up 5.5% this month from last month.
• Housing inventory is down 7.1% from last month.
• Capital infusion into banking for mortgages is just getting distributed.
• The national home retention program has stopped foreclosures and loan modifications will be issued by 01 December 2008.

Stop, I know you are thinking what about all the excesses, all the inappropriate risks, all the wrong doing, etc. Yes, you are right there is much that needs to happen from government policy changing to regulatory transformation, from banking policy changing to more diligent oversight, and so on. This will happen during the coming months.

Is the worst over? No one knows! All those who have so far fathomed an answer have been wrong. I believe there will be more discoveries, more bad news, more financial pain. It’s like getting cancer. It’s bad. It’s awful. But you go see the Dr. and you start treatment. It’s difficult. It’s painful. But it works 97% of the time. We are all experiencing a sort of financial cancer. Trades were engineered, then packaged & leveraged and exploded just like cancer cells grow rampantly and if unchecked will also explode.

What to do?

1. Put your customers into groups: (a) those that produce 80% of your profits usually a third, (b) those that contribute significantly to overhead usually half, (c) all the others. Set up a Customer Retention Team with your best relationship people and ask them first for their ideas for retaining every single customer in the first group the first week. Then spend their time on fostering ideas for retaining customers in the other two groups the following week. You personally take the top sales person job and meet face‐to‐face or at least online including audio & video with as many customers as you can taking them in order of how much each contributes to your cash flow.
2. Set up two ‘Find New Business Teams of your most creative people & your most knowledgeable people. Ask one team to develop at least three action plans to capture new business from new customers in current markets. Give the other team the assignment to develop at least three action plans for finding customers in new markets.
3. Set up an Opportunity Team. Give them the challenge to think beyond the usual cost cutting. Ask them to come up with a list of as many ideas as they can; good ones AS WELL AS bad ones that can improve business even if it means spending more money to get much better results. This will surprise them from the usual, ‘let’s get out our knives and start carving’ approach. Challenge them to produce as long a list of ideas as their time allows without consideration of viability or feasibility. You decide which of their ideas are best for implementation.

Give them some food-for-thought:

There are always companies who thrive during downtimes. There are also always companies who are hiring and growing during bad times.

They must be doing something right. Find examples of companies in your industry & your community that are performing well. Ask them to use the following examples as stepping stones to their thinking.

1. Raymond James, a financial services firm is adding 250 brokers to its 4,900 advisors across the globe.
2. Wal-Mart leads in hiring thousands although most of them are clerical jobs many are not.
3. Others hiring in the US include: Accenture, Berkshire Hathaway, Dell, Emerson Electric, IBM, McDonald’s, Microsoft & Oracle
4. Across the globe: Flextronics, Hitachi. Paribas, Saint-Gobain, Tata, Wipro just to name a few.

Iowa’s Business Boom: With almost a 50,000 job surplus, you might need to change Iowa’s nickname from the “Hawkeye State” to the “Hiring State.” Iowa Governor Chet Culver talks about his state’s business boom.
Click here to watch a video: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=844089500

Jon worked on an egg farm as a youngster and learned that paper egg cartons had many problems. Later in life he decided to start a company to make plastic egg cartons. He built an extrusion plant in the Midwest and later another on the West coast. Things were going well until the oil crisis hit in October, 1973. He got a call from Dow Chemical telling him that after 60 days they would no longer supply his styrene. Their long-term customers were to get all their supply.

He was out of business and being a responsible businessman called his customers so they could make other arrangements, informing them that he would no longer be able to supply them after 60 days.

Then he looked up from his desk and saw the huge book of all the world’s chemical companies on his shelves. He opened the book on his desk and began calling each and every chemical company looking for polystyrene. His calls revealed no one had polystyrene for sale but then one company offered him urethane. He then put an 8-way trade together to get the polystyrene he needed.

He even made an extra US $70,000 at the end of the day. He continued making large amounts of money trading chemicals.

He asked some purchasing managers why they called him to do deals they could do themselves. The answer, “Jon, by the time we get things worked through our company these product dislocations are gone. You are providing a needed service to the chemical industry.” During the next year Jon made enough money to acquire company after company.

Today Jon is the Chairman of Huntsman Chemical and along with his 14,000 employees produces 22 billion pounds of product like McDonald’s clamshell hamburger containers & L’egg containers for women’s hosiery generating US $12 billion in annual revenue from operations in 24 countries.

I was hired to prepare the first financial proformas for Huntsman as a graduate student back in 1974. Jon is an inspiration not only to me but to the world of what can happen when you persevere.

Posted in Global Economics | 1 Comment »

Quick US Economic Turnaround?

The prevailing view is the US Economy is in deep trouble, in recession and even in depression according to some observers. Also it will take at least a year or even several years to turnaround. Based upon today’s data there is much to support this view.

In a previous Allan’s Take I pointed out that watching the corrugated box industry often portends any economy’s future direction. I said the turnaround could be over a year but the key was to watch the purchase of corrugated box making equipment and the boxes themselves.No this indicator has not turned yet but I suspect it will turn by next spring, well before most pundants proscribe today. Why? Read on….

Job destruction is the leading reason waved indicative of impending economic doom. If you look at the 9 million jobs lost this year and 27,000 job cuts across large enterprise just last week it is sobering.

Consumer income declined over recent years along with the largest dive in consumer outlook in US history are also cited as indicators of an extended recession as consumer spending is the key driver of the US economy.

Allan’s Take Counterpoints:

1. President Obama is seen by most American’s and many non-Americans across the planet as a huge refreshing Ocean breeze. Tomorrow nearly ALL economic & political problems will be wrapped up into a big package labeled, BUSH, and shipped off to the PAST.

2. Americans are the most CAN DO people in the world. Living here in Florida you can feel the national energy growing, an excitement and enthusiasm gathering steam.

3. World governments are throwing everything they can think of to resolving every economic/financial issue. They will win. They have the ability to infuse huge amounts of money, to print money at will, to change regulatory, tax and other policies. They will win. I can’t say that line enough. The US has taken the lead on these initiatives and President Obama is a strong advocate of active government. The result more government interventions. The Bank of England is reducing interest to 1%, consider the rate has never been below 2% over the past 400 years!

4. Job destruction is mitigated by all the employment that is off books. There are millions of people making part and fulltime incomes on eBay among many other off book mechanisms. The level of trade and barter has been increasing for decades. The evidence of this is all around us.

When I lived in Belgium the National Bank of Belgium hired me and I was given a large binder of Belgium economic data showing all the unemployed and all the negative economic figures. Yet as I traveled the country I rarely saw any vagrant people. The shops seemed to be filled, the economy seemed to be robust. The explanation I was given was that some 20-25% of the Belgium economy was grey & black. I was surprised. I knew that South American countries had large black economies but I assumed Europe was different.

The world’s black and grey economy is huge. The best estimates indicate it approaches 30-35% of the global economy. Thus, you must take into account there is a lot of money driving the global economy coming from work done by people withOUT jobs or least those jobs on the books.

5. Consumer income has actually been increasing NOT declining for decades.

• While reported wages have fallen 4% from 1975 to 2005 benefits like health insurance, pensions and paid leave have risen so that median wages rose 28% during the same period.
• Households have gotten smaller during the same period so that wages actually rose 44%.
• When you add in other types of income like eBay and barter US families are doing quite well thank you very much. When I lived in Sweden I was told by the King of Sweden, “Allan, we Swedes like to complain a lot but we live well as you can see.” We were both sitting in a sauna in Hellsingland.

The US markets were up 3% today, Election Day. This is the highest rise on any election day in US history. Never underestimate the ticker tape. Meaning the equity markets very, very often anticipate future economic activity and the markets seem to believe businesses will do well and make strong earnings. Allan’s take forecasts a surprisingly quick US Economic turnaround—mid 2009.

For Allan’s Take on Investments & Timing Click.

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Posted in Global Politics | 2 Comments »

There’s something happenin’ here:

What it is, is becoming clear

Now entering my 7th decade of life turning 61 this summer and I am witnessing something profoundly different in US elections: an entire cadre of great leaders regardless of party. McCain’s selection of a woman Governor and Obama’s selection of a deeply experienced, capable Washington insider with strong roots among the common folk of America neutralizes the spurious arguments from both sides on personalities and shifts the focus to issues:

Americans are being challenged to select their leaders based more on policy than politics. What’s most intriguing is whoever wins is NOT very important. Sure there are massive differences among the Democrats and Republicans on many issues.

Democrats want to help people directly while Republicans prefer to help people INdirectly. Democrats want to retain a woman’s right to chose while Republicans want to secure the life of any potential child.

Republicans want to secure the right of any individual to possess weapons of all kinds perhaps NOT those of mass destruction but giving up even these is disappointing to some Republicans while Democrats want to increase the safety of people by limiting the types of weapons available. Which side wins will have tremendous effect upon individuals of course and impact their rights and freedoms. These issues are all relatively inconsequential to a far more significant and profound transformation that ALL Americans are just starting to experience.

The important happening is both parties have a slate of candidates who are extremely capable leaders with vision and are capable of working with their opposition. Thus Americans are energized. This election has brought out millions and millions of normally lethargic and disinterested potential voters who are now eager to vote, to get involved, Regardless of which party wins the winning party will work with the other in a new way that we have never seen.

We are embarking on a new era of collaboration. We will be finding common ground. We will be creating new perspectives and we will reach new solutions to old problems as we also encounter new problems and new challenges we will recognize and tackle them rather than ignore or overlook them.

The result will be a newly energized America powered by its people much less encumbered from the usual negativity overlaid by their government and enthralled by a new group of leaders who actually know how and have committed to work together to build a better America. They will be helped by Americans who are becoming better themselves. Americans are being challenged, are being motivated to get beyond themselves to work together to build a better America for others first and then experience the resulting improvement in a better America for themselves.

America has often led the world by showing things are possible, by proving even some things thought to be impossible can be accomplished. Perhaps we are all going to witness in our lifetimes a transformation beyond our countries across the globe. We all know we live and operate in a global community we also know all communities are more focused on themselves and on their own issues and concerns. Perhaps this will change as well as the world becomes as giddy as we Americans are becoming today in what can be done when we embrace rather than fight each other, when we challenge rather than threaten each other, when we help and work together for a common good.

It is a most exciting time in America today and this excitement is growing into enchantment. One implication is for investors. Now is the time to explore making investments in the US. Many assets are at or nearing their lowest levels. The upturn is a year hence. Get ready. Get involved. Almost any well researched investment in the US today will do extremely well in the coming years. Of course you need to wait unit after the election and things settle down both the political and the economic turmoil is just too high right now. For Allan’s Take on Investments & Timing Click.

I used a Buffalo Springfield song to open this missive. The point they were making is we need to stop what we are doing and find a new way forward. It is looking like today’s leadership actually is stopping politics as usual and we Americans are responding. We will be finding new ways forward led by the best leadership talent I have ever seen again regardless of which party you favor, and regardless of which party wins the world will be experiencing new fired up and enthralled hard working and collaborative Americans.

China. “watch out.” you have been on a roll we in America will be giving you a run for your success.

L. Allan Austin

www.allanaustin.com

+1 407 682-3887

Posted in Global Politics | 10 Comments »

When will our economy change?

Over several decades of facilitating strategic discussion around the globe, 104 countries at last count, the number one question was how can you know when the economy, yours or global is going to change either upward or downward. Today in the US the question is paramount and again economists and others line up on all sides of the same question pointing in ALL directions.

Allan’s take: Follow the corrugated box industry globally and in your country or region. Almost everything gets packed and shipped in a corrugated box. The companies making corrugated boxes know the earliest when an economic cycle is going to change.

Today I talked to the head of global sales of one of the leading corrugated box making equipment companies in Phillips, Wisconsin. He told me things are going strong everywhere around the planet and especially in the usual suspects — China, India, Brazil.

Things have been going poorly in the US and are likely to GET WORSE. This means regardless of what the economists forecast the US is going to take at least another year and half to pull out of its current nose dive.

Evidence International Paper is GOING to announce later this month that it is closing a large number of corrugated box plants. Also Smurfit another large box manufacturer recently announced the closing of 9 plants. While some of this is due to consolidation, cost savings and increasing in output from new technologies the overall trend is corrugated boxes are going DOWN for at least one and half years. International Paper has stopped all capital expenditures for the next 18 months.

If this is not enough for you to accept my position read below. When illegal immigrants go home to find a better economy you can be certain yours is not doing very well!!

Send me your email and we will send you My Take on the coming Upturn.

Illegal immigrants going home

According to Mexican consulate officials in Dallas, some 400 immigrant families have told them so far this year that they’re going back to Mexico and asked for transfer documents to enroll their children in Mexican schools. Enrique Hubbard Urrea, Mexican consul general in Dallas, said it is impossible to track every Mexican who leaves the area. But he said the number asking for transfer documents at the consulate is on the rise.

In 2005, the consulate issued 162 such documents; in 2006 it was 199; and last year it was 270. At the current rate, more than twice as many people will leave this year as last, he said. “There is no doubt the trend indicates that the number is growing,” Mr. Hubbard said. And it isn’t happening only in Dallas. At the Mexican consulates in Chicago and Phoenix, too, the number of Mexican families applying for transfer documents for their children has increased.

L. Allan Austin

www.allanaustin.com

+1 407 682-3887

Posted in Global Economics | 2 Comments »

Era of Collaboration

 
The US election is just two weeks away. While the largest percentage of Americans is impassioned over this election with deep feelings for their preferred set of leaders I think it largely does not matter which set wins! Why?  Read on…

We are entering an era of collaboration leaving the era of competition behind us and both sets of leaders are exceeding good at collaboration. This may surprise you as you think of all the fighting going on, of all the lipstick being slathered on the lips of pit bulls, and on and on it goes. Well we must stand back from campaign rhetoric and reflect on the actual track records and skills of the four leaders themselves.

Barack Obama is ridiculed for his role as a community organizer as if it is a job of little importance yet ask what does a community organizer really do and really accomplish. The answer is he brings very desperate groups together, people from all walks of life, people who have deep emotional and often conflicting views of each other, people who have not and cannot work together. A community organizer must have the facilitation skills and the leadership skills to cook this tumultuous brew into a fine bouillabaisse. One in which everyone can live and enjoy the resulting taste. Barack Obama has shown himself as gifted in these bringing people together skills which he brought into his legislative experiences both at the State and at the National level.

John McCain is depicted as a rant and rave political right wingnut who will take drastic and inappropriate action. A leader who will force feed the nation. His record in Congress shows the opposite he has brought divergent groups together and formed coalitions to make things work for everyone. He is seen often with his close friend and colleague Joe Lieberman one of the most liberal and most religious conservative members of Congress. His Vietnam experience is heralded and admired by all Americans and non Americans as well. He is a true national hero. Again we must look more deeply at his experience. In prison as a war criminal he learned dimensions of the collaboration process that most people rarely are challenged by and he came through five grueling years having not collaborated with the enemy but having learned how to ingeniously collaborate with his colleagues in prison.

The two presidents in waiting Joe Biden and Sarah Palin are both well experienced and accomplished collaborators. Just look at how well they are collaborating with their bosses. Binden’s Senate experience shows his strong and well exercised collaboration skills. Palin’s major and governor roles show she has brought people to the table and to resolution many many times.

My conclusion:  What the country needs most in the coming years is collaboration to bring all Americans together to work together to collaborate together to create a new economic and political construct for our conjoint success. Also America needs to extend its collaboration platform globally. We have exported so much good and so much bad across this planet on our own with relatively little collaboration we should and I believe this to be true regardless of either set of leaders winning. We Americans collaboratively led will foster a world collaboration launching us into the Era of Collaboration.

NOTE:  For a look at the dark side of each candidate
and for a view from far away see below.

Obama the Darkside

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RZVw3no2A4]

McCain the darkside

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain

Election in Philippines

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/01/1464066.aspx

L. Allan Austin

www.allanaustin.com

+1 407 682-3887

Posted in Global Politics | 3 Comments »

US Elections

Now entering my 7^th decade of life turning 61 this summer and I am witnessing something profoundly different in US elections: an entire cadre of great leaders regardless of party. McCain’s selection of a woman Governor and Obama’s selection of a deeply experienced, capable Washington insider with strong roots among the common folk of America neutralizes the spurious arguments from both sides on personalities and shifts the focus to issues:

Americans are being challenged to select their leaders based more on policy than politics. What’s most intriguing is whoever wins is NOT very important. Sure there are massive differences among the Democrats and Republicans on many issues.

Democrats want to help people directly while Republicans prefer to help people INdirectly.

Democrats want to retain a woman’s right to chose while Republicans want to secure the life of any potential child.

Republicans want to secure the right of any individual to possess weapons of all kinds perhaps NOT those of mass destruction but giving up even these is disappointing to some Republicans while Democrats want to increase the safety of people by limiting the types of weapons available.

Which side wins will have tremendous effect upon individuals of course and impact their rights and freedoms. These issues are all relatively inconsequential to a far more significant and profound transformation that ALL Americans are just starting to experience.

The important happening is both parties have a slate of candidates who are extremely capable leaders with vision and are capable of working with their opposition. Thus Americans are energized. This election has brought out millions and millions of normally lethargic and disinterested potential voters who are now eager to vote, to get involved, Regardless of which party wins the winning party will work with the other in a new way that we have never seen.

We are embarking on a new era of collaboration. We will be finding common ground. We will be creating new perspectives and we will reach new solutions to old problems as we also encounter new problems and new challenges we will recognize and tackle them rather than ignore or overlook them.

The result will be a newly energized America powered by its people much less encumbered from the usual negativity overlaid by their government and enthralled by a new group of leaders who actually know how and have committed to work together to build a better America. They will be helped by Americans who are becoming better themselves. Americans are being challenged, are being motivated to get beyond themselves to work together to build a better America for others first and then experience the resulting improvement in a better America for themselves.

America has often led the world by showing things are possible, by proving even some things thought to be impossible can be accomplished. Perhaps we are all going to witness in our lifetimes a transformation beyond our countries across the globe. We all know we live and operate in a global community we also know all communities are more focused on themselves and on their own issues and concerns. Perhaps this will change as well as the world becomes as giddy as we Americans are becoming today in what can be done when we embrace rather than fight each other, when we challenge rather than threaten each other, when we help and work together for a common good.

It is a most exciting time in America today and this excitement is growing into enchantment. One implication is for investors. Now is the time to explore making investments in the US. Many assets are at or nearing their lowest levels. The upturn is a year hence. Get ready. Get involved. Almost any well researched investment in the US today will do extremely well in the coming years. Of course you need to wait unit after the election and things settle down both the political and the economic turmoil is just too high right now.

I used a Buffalo Springfield song to open this missive. The point they were making is we need to stop what we are doing and find a new way forward. It is looking like today’s leadership actually is stopping politics as usual and we Americans are responding. We will be finding new ways forward led by the best leadership talent I have ever seen again regardless of which party you favor, and regardless of which party wins the world will be experiencing new fired up and enthralled hard working and collaborative Americans.

China. “watch out.” you have been on a roll we in America will be giving you a run for your success.

Posted in Global Politics | No Comments »